Construction to rebound with four-year boom

Aaron Morby 10 years ago
Share

Construction will swing into a period of rapid and sustained growth over the next four years, according to leading economists.

The latest forecast from the Construction Products Association anticipates the £111bn construction industry will enjoy a whopping 19% growth by 2017.

This equates to a £20bn expansion of activity over the four years with housing and energy and transport infrastructure leading the boom.

Economists have torn up previous forecasts to upwardly revise predictions after the housing industry kicked into gear over the summer.

Noble Francis, Economics Director of the CPA, said: “Construction is set to enjoy growth over the next four years as it recovers from its worst recession in over 35 years.

“This is mainly due to private housing, which is experiencing a rapid rise, and infrastructure, which is seeing a more gradual return to positive territory.”

Screen Shot 2013-10-18 at 12.41.15

Francis added: “The private housing sector is being driven by recovery in the wider economy and the impacts of policies including Help to Buy, which have driven both house prices and house building.

“This is expected to lead to private house starts increasing 19.0% in 2013 and 15.0% in 2014, albeit from historic low levels of house building.

“Although rapid growth is predicted over the next 18 months, uncertainty remains around what will happen when the policies end, given that the housing market is unlikely to be self-sustaining by then.”

He said that the infrastructure sector was also recovering from a very difficult 2012, when output fell 12.7% despite numerous government announcements of boosts to the sector.

“Government now appears, however, to be refocusing capital investment towards repairs and renewals.  In addition, work on Europe’s largest construction project, Crossrail, is expected to peak over the next 18 months.  As a result, growth of 7.4% is forecast in 2014.

“In the longer-term, the prospects for infrastructure will be reliant upon investment in the replacement of energy capacity across nuclear, offshore wind, gas and shale, all of which remain uncertain.  Driven by this investment, we predict the sector will enjoy further growth of 27.9% between 2015 and 2017.”

But some other key sectors will continue to struggle. Work in the largest sector of commercial (offices and retail) remains one-third lower than its high in 2007, while public sector construction, which accounts for one-third of total industry output, continues to constrain overall growth.

“After suffering from an extremely tough market for over five years, and acting as a drag on UK economic activity, construction is set to grow every year between 2014 and 2017.  This should provide a considerable boost to the wider economy,” said Francis.

Key points

  • Construction output growth of 2.7% in 2014 and 4.6% in 2015
  • Private housing starts to rise 19.0% in 2013 and 15.0% in 2014
  • Public education to fall 14.0% this year
  • Rail infrastructure to rise 34.0% by 2017
  • Energy infrastructure to rise 99.0% by 2017
  • Public sector education and health projects to fall 2.4% in 2014

Latest news

McAlpine signs £500m Broadgate dual towers deal

Work to start on iconic 36-storey and 21-storey towers
6 hours ago

Worker rescued from collapsed four metre deep trench

Fire crews take six hours to save trapped builder near Blackwall Tunnel
10 hours ago

Gove puts another major building scheme on hold

Secretary of State starts another planning fight after M&S defeat
1 day ago

Greenwich University tenders £300m framework

Up to five firms will carry out upgrade and newbuild work at three campuses
11 hours ago

Work starts on Manchester 26-storey Obsidian tower

Contractor Domis starts Salboy's 10th Manchester scheme in seven years
9 hours ago

Race for £1.3bn West Midlands social homes framework

The Community Housing Group reboots tender race for new build housing
9 hours ago

Delancey submits £400m King’s Cross lab plans

200,000 sq ft lab/office project will be built above railway and tube tunnels just 4.5m below
1 day ago

Winners revealed for £150m fire safety framework

New deal will help organisations comply with the Building Safety Act
10 hours ago

Sellar plans £500m City tower next to Walkie-Talkie

Consultation starts on London 60 Gracechurch Street tower
1 day ago

Severfield ends year on high with record order book

Orders top £500m with strong future pipeline of opportunities ahead
1 day ago

Second senior director exits National Highways

Commercial director Malcolm Dare set to move on to new role
1 day ago

New scheme fuels London lab building boom

Plans in for 160,000 sq ft Whitechapel scheme near Royal London hospital
1 day ago

Contract race starts for next £155m section of A9 dualling

Prior Information Notice published for Tay Crossing to Ballinluig stretch
2 days ago

£55m Sheffield build-to-rent scheme approved

Demolition to start later this year for 158-flat Sheffield Garden project
2 days ago

London back as most expensive place to build in world

Capital leapfrogs Geneva to top costliest construction rankings
2 days ago

Gas supplier Regent to buy TClarke for £90m

£491m turnover listed building services specialist to be sold
2 days ago

Steel contractor Billington launches into bridge market

Steelwork firm hires staff from failed architectural and bridge specialist SH Structures
2 days ago

McGee employees benefit from rise in profits

Pre-tax profit doubles boosting payouts for Employee Ownership Trust
2 days ago

Lendlease veteran is latest new McAlpine director

Paul Sims joins as Operations Director after 40 years at rival contractor
3 days ago

Costain signs site labour supply deal with four firms

Contractor to use only a quartet of providers for temporary labour supply
2 days ago

BAM go-ahead for Leeds 200,000 sq ft office

Latitude Yellow will complete final plot at Doncaster Monk Bridge site
3 days ago

VolkerFitzpatrick wins £30m logistics job

Latest deal to build five distribution units for Prologis UK
3 days ago

Trio win new Scape utilities consultancy framework

Perfect Circle, AtkinsRéalis and Arcadis win places on
2 days ago

Precast firm FP McCann cleared after immigration raid

Home Office takes no action after public raid on construction site
3 days ago

Wates-owned SES restructure delivers record profit and revenue

Building services contractor revenue soars to almost £300m
3 days ago

25 groundworks firms win £100m Places for People deal

M&J Evans, Carmac and Churngold Construction feature in housing association's line-up
3 days ago

Energy efficiency firms angry at lack of CITB support

SME contractors funding bid "does not meet the current criteria for supporting productivity or EDI"
3 days ago

£400m South Cambridge science park approved

Outline approval allows former sewage treatment works to be demolished
3 days ago

McLaren gets green light for 45-storey Leeds tower

Landmark Wellington Square scheme will see 464 flats built with 360,000 sq ft of offices
6 days ago

Heavy rain causes 1.9% construction output fall

Hopes remain undampened of a resi-led recovery this summer
6 days ago

Contractor services