Construction growth forecast hiked to 4.5% in 2014

Aaron Morby 5 years ago
Share

Construction’s crystalball gazers have ticked up growth forecasts for this year once again as the recovery becomes stronger and broadens.

The Construction Products Association’s latest forecast predicts rapid increases in private house building, together with growth in the infrastructure and commercial sectors.

Together these will drive activity up 4.5% this year and promise another two years of good growth on top .

Next year is expected to be another bumper year with growth reaching 4.8% before a slip to 4.3% in 2016.

Spring2014 forecast

Dr Noble Francis, economics director of the association, said  “One year since the construction recovery began, activity is becoming firmly entrenched.

“The construction industry is now on track to grow 18% by 2017 and contribute an additional £20bn to the UK economy.

“We expect private housing starts to surge 18% in 2014 and 10% next year before falling to 5% in 2016 and 2017.

“It’s important to note that private house building only accounts for 15% of total construction.

“Commercial, the largest sector, is expected to grow each year up to 2017.  The office sector in particular has recently shown growth, though demand is mostly in Central London.  We forecast offices construction to increase 7% in 2014 and 10% in 2015.”

He added that last year’s gains in the infrastructure sector would continue to 2017 when levels are anticipated to be 42% higher than in 2012.

Recently, rail has been the fastest growing infrastructure sector. It now looks forward to a steady £38bn investment programme by Network Rail over the next five years.

Roads work, which slumped by almost half in only two years, is forecast to grow every year to 2017, including 15% in 2014.

Francis said:  “The main risks to our forecasts arise around the issue of energy.

“Construction and manufacturing firms have serious concerns regarding energy security and supply.

“Constant delays to the nuclear programme and uncertainty regarding investment in gas-fired power stations only exacerbate these concerns.”

Other key points in spring forecast

  • Public housing starts are set to rise 8% this year and 5% next as growth in private housing leads to increases in public housing via S106 agreements
  • Commercial office building to increase 7% this year and 10% in 2015
  • Infrastructure work to rise 10.1% in 2014 and 7.2% in 2015
  • Retail output growth of 4.0% is forecast in 2014 and 8.0% in 2015
  • Public sector construction is forecast to marginally rise 0.7% in 2014 and 2.3% in 2015 as delayed schools and hospitals projects start on site
  • Energy infrastructure output growth is set to slow from 15% in 2014 to only 5% in 2015.

Latest news

Water winners revealed for £2bn Severn Trent spend

More contractors win first lots on AMP7 as client revamps working practices
7 hours ago

Stranded Carillion chief takes helm at Kier

Andrew Davies named new Kier chief executive
10 hours ago

Interserve £170m prison project to be rebid

Ministry of Justice confirms Glen Parva to be tendered as a publicly funded project
9 hours ago

Cabinet Office promises Interserve subbies will get paid

Parliamentary Secretary makes pledge in House of Commons debate
9 hours ago

Sir Robert McAlpine commercial director exits

Martin Pitt steps down from board after four years at group
10 hours ago

Lakehouse subbies plan showdown with Sureserve bosses

Suppliers owed millions to demand answers at company AGM
1 day ago

Tolent to build first homes at £400m Leeds scheme

Builder gets foot in the door with prototype homes for Kirkstall Forge
10 hours ago

Boost your online presence – join the Enquirer Directory

New site for suppliers and buyers showcases products, services and latest stories
11 months ago

Interserve subcontractors told it’s business as usual

Outsourcers circle Interserve support services division
1 day ago

Morgan Sindall wins 20-year Sellafield civils deal

Four teams named for Sellafield decommissioning project partnership
1 day ago

Hunt for quartet to deliver £700m Birmingham Uni pipeline

University is preparing to deliver phase two of its estate masterplan
1 day ago

Stepnell wins £14m Northampton Vulcan works redevelopment

Historic factory to be refurbished for business start-ups
1 day ago

Hunt starts for developer on £200m South Shields scheme

South Tyneside Council looking for housing partner and remediation specialist
1 day ago

Revamp plans for Birmingham Moor Street station unveiled

Transfer deck across the top of station will connect to all platforms
1 day ago

Interserve workers told to report for work as usual

Interserve subsidiaries to trade solvently as PLC business pre-packed
4 days ago

Interserve to file for administration as rescue rejected

Shareholders vote down rescue plan
4 days ago

Dawnus Group goes into administration

Grant Thornton now in charge of contractor which employed 700 staff
4 days ago

Bricklayer killed by collapsing wall

Court hands out £900,000 fine but contractor went into administration six months after tragedy
4 days ago

Dawnus collapse a “Welsh Carillion”

Subcontractors braced for huge losses as administrators poised to take control
4 days ago

Taylor Woodrow losses halve Vinci UK profits

Building operations trade profitably but Taylor Woodrow suffers fifth year in the red
4 days ago

Plans in for £70m Edinburgh botanic garden revamp

New glasshouse features in major overhaul plan
4 days ago

Mace to steer £350m Stevenage town centre revamp

Work set to begin on site next year
4 days ago

Plan for £250m new Tees Crossing

Tees Valley Combined Authority hopes work could start by 2023
5 days ago

Rail safety warning over runaway machine on tracks

Accident investigators highlight problems with safety management systems
5 days ago

Subbies braced for worst if Interserve loses crunch vote

Interserve to fall into administration if shareholders reject rescue plan
4 days ago

Dawnus heading for administration

Dawnus Construction Holdings on brink of collapse
6 days ago

11 firms win £5.2bn Southern Construction Framework

McLaren and McAlpine join new line up as Bouygues and Balfour drop out
5 days ago

Lakehouse Contracts ceases trading

£71m turnover business goes bust seven months after being sold by Sureserve
5 days ago

Torsion to build £65m twin towers in Leeds

Court Collaboration and Torsion Developments put in plans for build to rent scheme
5 days ago

Balfour Beatty bags £1.5bn central railway alliance

Network Rail names winner of last of three new track alliance deals
5 days ago

Contractor services