Construction growth forecast upgraded again

Aaron Morby 11 years ago
Share

Industry crystal ball gazers have revised up their growth forecasts once again and predict construction will now expand by about 10% over the next two years.

This year’s new growth forecast from the Construction Products Association has been marked up from the earlier estimate of 3.4% at the start of 2014 to 4.7%, despite a slowing of growth in the first quarter, according to the last official output figures.

The rise will see construction contribute nearly £11bn to the UK economy.

Office building is expected to kick in alongside private house building as a big workload driver, while warehouse schemes will jump 20% this year.

CPA Summer 2014 forecast

CPA forecast summer 2014

Key Points

  • Construction output to grow 4.7% in 2014 and 4.8% in 2015
  • Private housing starts to rise 18% in 2014 and 10% in 2015
  • Commercial offices output to grow 10% in 2014 and 8% in 2015
  • Industrial warehouses construction to rise 20% in 2014 and 10% in 2015
  • Education construction to rise 2.2% in 2014 after three years of consecutive falls
  • Health construction to fall, the sixth consecutive year of falls, due to lack of PFI work

Dr Noble Francis, Economics Director of the Association, said: “Overall levels of activity will likely match their 2007 peak in 2017.

“In the short-term, the activity will primarily be led by private housing, infrastructure and commercial.

“Notably, in the long-term, we expect this activity will be boosted by work on schools and hospitals.”

The private housing sector continues to benefit from the improving economic backdrop and government policy measures, with housing starts expected to grow 18.0% in 2014 and 10.0% in 2015.

After that affordability and higher mortgage repayment costs are expected to subdue private housing growth to 5% per year from 2016.

Commercial work is expected to also pick up strongly on the back of office building activity spreading from London to other key regional markets such as Manchester, Edinburgh and Birmingham.

The CPA forecasts that commercial offices output will rise 10% this year and 8% in 2015.

The Association anticipates infrastructure output will rise across roads, rail, energy, and water and sewerage, delivering a net expansion of 9.2% this year and 7% next, primarily due to major projects such as Crossrail and nuclear decommissioning.”

Dr Francis added: “Forecasts continue to be revised up as the UK economy rebalances away from consumer spending and services towards manufacturing.

“Greater than expected UK economic growth could stimulate even more private sector construction.”

Latest news

Tower crane drivers set to strike

SItes could stop amid pay row with Wolffkran
16 minutes ago

Winvic wins £340m M&S mega shed at DIRFT

Low-carbon Midlands 1.3m sq ft twin sheds set to anchor food growth plans
21 hours ago

Father-of-six dies in demolition site tragedy

Fatal accident while demolishing flats in Renfrewshire
17 hours ago

Persimmon builds momentum with 12% jump in completions

House builder warns there will be no material uplift in market this year
24 minutes ago

Henry Boot seal planning for Goole 5.5m sq ft freeport

HBD partnership targets start on site this year for £130m first phase
45 minutes ago

FP McCann buys roofing products firm Easy-Trim

Concrete specialist acquires firm out of administration
46 minutes ago

Trade body BESA boots out five more firms in standards purge

Building engineering services body chief says race to the bottom is over
8 hours ago

Bidders day set for £4.5bn Southern Construction Framework

Around 20 contractors brace for fight to retain places on sixth-generation mega deal
1 day ago

Facade specialist Permasteelisa (UK) hit by third year of losses

Legacy projects, and fixed-price contract pressures continued to bite
1 day ago

“Future of construction” firm in administration

Versarien fails to strike a solvent sale for business
4 days ago

British Land CEO to join warehouse developer

Simon Carter to leave after five years at the helm
1 day ago

Paddington life sciences tower moves into planning

16-storey hub planned beside St Mary's Hospital in London
1 day ago

Balfour secures £900m Midlands highways upkeep deal

Firm beats rival M Group and Ringway bids for new combined council deal
4 days ago

Skanska slides 4,200 tonne railway bridge into place

Watch time-lapse video of major civil engineering feat
1 day ago

Student rooms builder cancels London and defers Bristol projects

Unite cans £147m Paddington scheme but pledges £100m share buyback
4 days ago

Mace crowned annual contracts league champion

Hoard of big wins in the capital secures 2025 title for most work won
4 days ago

Offsite specialist Merit went down owing suppliers £17m

Assets bought by firm newly formed by former directors
5 days ago

Leeds United set to kick off stadium expansion this summer

New West and North stands to deliver 53,000-capacity ground
4 days ago

Bovis hires Sisk healthcare chief to scale up NHS work

Nadeem Chaudhry joins as UK head of health
5 days ago

Muse picked to steer 10,000-home Bristol Temple Quarter plan

Major housing and commercial build-out planned for 135-acre station neighbourhood
5 days ago

Paul Bentley joins Mott MacDonald executive board

JN Bentley director steps up after driving water work growth
5 days ago

£300m Wales indoor ski resort clears final planning hurdle

UK’s longest indoor ski run heading for Merthyr
5 days ago

Former Carillion finance directors fined £371,700

Richard Adam and Zafar Khan accept fines for misleading statements in run-up to collapse
6 days ago

Andrew Scott forecasts record-breaking year ahead

Order book strength underpins £120m revenue forecast
5 days ago

£80m London housing scheme unlocked after flip to 100% social

Extra grant funding pushes 228-home Bromley Blenheim Centre scheme over the line
5 days ago

Construction buyers see better times ahead

Business activity hopes hit five-month high
6 days ago

Collapsing wall knocks labourer down stairwell

Contractor fined £60,000 after injured worker faced a month in hospital
6 days ago

McAlpine tipped for £150m West End office revamp

Funding deal paves way for start at 125 Shaftesbury Avenue
6 days ago

Site acquired in Chichester for new Premier Inn

Construction to start this Spring
6 days ago

Multiplex signs £250m London Wall construction contract

Main contract to start after year of enabling works by Erith
7 days ago