Construction heading for shallow recession in 2023

Aaron Morby 2 years ago
Share

Crystal ball gazers are forecasting a 1.7% dip in construction activity this year before the industry returns to modest growth in 2024.

The strength of the wider economic headwinds has seen Experian’s construction forecasting unit downgrade its latest workload predictions.

But economists are still predicting a relatively shallow recession with inflation, higher borrowing costs and labour rate rises expected to fade next year allowing construction to ease back into modest 1.1% growth in 2024.

Their less pessimistic outlook for 2023 contrasts with the Construction Products Association which is telling firms to brace for a sharper near 4% contraction in workloads.

Experian predicts new work will bear the brunt of the downturn this year falling by 2.4%. This is largely being dragged down by a near 7% fall in new housing work in the face of falling home prices over the next two years, the cost of living crisis and higher borrowing rates.

Other new build sectors of construction should escape with stable output or even see sluggish growth, according to Experian.

A backlog of new orders for prisons, defence and some new hospital work should help the non-residential sector even achieve modest year-on-year growth in 2023 and 2024, of between 1.5% and 2%, but much depends on how public authorities cope with rising costs, before accelerating to around 3% in 2025.

Experian winter construction forecast (% change)
2022 2023 2024
All new work 4.9 -2.4 1.9
R&M 6.0 -0.7 -0.2
Total work 5.3 -1.7 1.1
New work subsectors
Housing 9.3 -6.6 2.8
Public non residential -5.2 1.6 1.7
Industrial 50 0.6 -0.5
Commercial -0.6 0.8 1.1
Infrastructure -1.8 0.1 1.8

Infrastructure output is forecast to stabilise this year before increasing by around 2% in 2024 and by 3% in 2025 to a new record high as HS2 and Hinkley Point C move to peak construction.

But forecasters warn that while the pipeline of work remains visible, constrained budgets in the face of higher materials prices could well see risks on the downside.

After a year of exceptional expansion, the prospects for industrial construction going forward are much more muted with only marginal growth this year, a marginal decline in 2024, and a relatively modest rise in output in 2025.

Even the commercial sector is expected to battle on with 0.8% growth albeit from a base which is 23% down on the 2008 peak.

Latest news

Balfour Beatty terminates Danny Sullivan labour deals

Around 500 workers on HS2 will be moved to alternative agencies or be taken on direct
2 days ago

Trio face prosecution after Hinkley site death

Main contractors and client to face charges over death of site supervisor
2 days ago

Buyers see recovery in house building sector

But civil and commercial work still in the doldrums
2 days ago

Apprentice saws-off thumb on hotel refurb site

Court hears how digit was reattached and teenager continued training with another firm
2 days ago

Laing O’Rourke tops June contracts league

£919m animal super lab dominates new orders
3 days ago

TSL turnover smashes £500m as profit almost trebles

Data centre and logistics contractor rises high on surging demand
3 days ago

Gleeson Homes chief exec leaves business after restructure

Management revamp after "challenging" year
3 days ago

Green light for 1,600-home Oldham town centre overhaul

Plans for over 1,600 homes across six regeneration sites approved
3 days ago

DSM wins Norwich city centre clearance job

Anglia Square shopping centre clearance for £300m scheme
3 days ago

13-year-old becomes UK’s youngest qualified digger driver

Grandson of Gallagher Group chairman sets industry record
3 days ago

Cubby reborn in £12m Svella-backed takeover

£50m revenue target set as 14 firms combine under new Cubby Group banner
4 days ago

North East NHS trusts plot £3bn health estate overhaul

Market engagement begins for major construction push across four trusts
4 days ago

HG goes green on cranes in £1.2m switch to battery power

Diesel-free crane drive cuts fuel bills by 94%
4 days ago

Developer fined £165,000 for fire safety failings

Firm ignored fire safety orders on apartment job in Preston
4 days ago

Bidding to start for £1.8bn North West framework

Contractors invited to bid for latest Procure Partnerships deal
4 days ago

Hill hits record £90m profit as homes pipeline swells

Build-to-rent push and £4.8bn contracting book to fuel next growth phase
4 days ago

Rayner unveils £39bn plan to build 300,000 social homes

Council building revival and rent reform feature in social and affordable homes plan
5 days ago

Keltbray bounces back with £3.2m profit

Tighter controls and smarter project selection fuel strong turnaround
5 days ago

VINCI JV wins 500-home twin town centre revamps

Chester Northgate phase 2 and Northwich Weaver Square schemes move to delivery stage
5 days ago

80 energy projects unlocked as Ofgem backs grid expansion

£24bn energy networks deal gets green light from regulator
6 days ago

How to see your stories on the Enquirer

Join our Suppliers and Buyers directory to get your news published
5 days ago

Henley lands Midland Mill revamp on Leeds tower scheme

Restoration of 18th-century mill kicks off on South Bank regeneration project
5 days ago

New boss at Eric Wright Civil Engineering

Gavin Hulme takes top job as Diane Bourne moves to group role
5 days ago

Pinewood submits £1bn data centre plan

Studio giant adds green and learning spaces to tech hub blueprint
6 days ago

Record results after TClarke goes private

Britain's biggest M&E contractor flourishes after de-listing
6 days ago

Dalkia lands £200m nuclear maintenance deal

1,000 nuclear FM staff to join M&E contractor
6 days ago

Construction comeback to outpace wider economy

Arcadis forecast fueled by spending review optimism
7 days ago

First steel goes up on giant car battery site

Severfield gets to work on McAlpine Somerset site
6 days ago

Permasteelisa wins cladding deal on Bovis city tower

Facade specialist lands package at 60 Gracechurch Street
6 days ago

Fox buys recycled asphalt specialist Fisher

Acquisition adds major recycled asphalt capacity in north west
6 days ago