The stark assessment comes in the Home Builders Federation’s Mind the Gap report, which lays bare how every key indicator of housing delivery in London is now heading in the wrong direction.
The report warns red tape, safety regulator delays and affordability issues are choking off supply.
Planning consents have collapsed to their lowest level since records began in 2006. London’s overall share of national housing delivery has shrunk from 20% a decade ago to just 15% today.
At the same time, almost 10,000 homes are stuck in the Building Safety Regulator’s Gateway 2 process, with approvals dragging on for more than six months.
Developers also face the dual-staircase rule, carbon offset charges and the Mayoral Construction Infrastructure Levy, all adding to costs that render many apartment-led schemes unviable.
London’s 35% affordable housing requirement is another major stumbling block. Few schemes can meet the threshold, and the shortage of registered providers willing to take Section 106 units is forcing projects into lengthy viability negotiations, further delaying delivery.
On top of this, buyer demand has collapsed under the weight of London’s affordability crisis.
Deposits for first-time buyers now average nearly seven times annual income, leaving only the top 30% of earners able to buy. Just 15% of first-time buyers purchased in the capital last year, compared with 25% a decade ago, while more households have been pushed into the private rented sector.
House builders are calling for urgent action from both ministers and the Mayor of London, including cutting the affordable housing threshold to 25%, streamlining the London Plan, scrapping the Building Safety Levy and reintroducing targeted support for first-time buyers.
Neil Jefferson, HBF chief executive, said: “London Plan policies combined with additional government taxes on new homes, onerous processes to get higher-rise schemes approved and challenging market conditions have effectively made London a no-go zone for housing investment.”
Without intervention, the HBF warns, London will fail to deliver the 440,000 homes needed to contribute to government’s national targets.