But that doesn’t make them great value to win the World Cup at a shade over evens.
It’s bit like taking those sort of odds in the football equivalent on Germany.
You know there’s a decent chance of it happening – but 11/10 is way to short on the All Blacks to make history and become the first ever side to retain the title.
They should have a fairly straightforward route into the semis but a few question marks over their scrum mean it’s time to look elsewhere for a bit of value.
I like the look of England and Ireland but they are set to clash in the semis so let’s plump for a home win on Stuart Lancaster’s lads at 9/2 for the tournament.
We are in the obligatory “group of death” but the Welsh are going down like flies so a perfect scenario would see England top the group teeing up a quarter final clash with Scotland then Ireland in the semis before a mighty clash with the All Blacks.
Betting Spy will be at Twickenham on Friday dreaming of just that scenario after a few too many pre-match pints.
And knowing the Twickenham station queues I might even get home in time for the knock-out stages.
Seventies props move quicker than that line but the long-journey home will be worth it to watch a World Cup kick-off in our own backyard.
Back on the football front and it was another blank week for Betting Spy.
Little does Jose Mourinho know that we have cursed his Chelsea side by tipping them for the title.
It’s been a fairly humbling week for the Premier League in Europe as the familiar frailties emerged from our top teams as soon as they face continental opposition.
Back on the domestic front I like the look of Crystal Palace to win at Spurs.
Tottenham look very ordinary so far and Alan Pardew will have his men set-up to attack with pace on the counter attack which could pay off at a juicy looking 3/1.
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Running total of all bets to a £10 stake for 2015/16 season: £-50.00