The decision is a blow to London Mayor Boris Johnson and backers of plans to build a new airport in the Thames Estuary.

The commission has not shortlisted any new airport plans because of “too many uncertainties and challenges surrounding them at this stage.”

The initial report said there is a need for one net additional runway to be in operation in the south east by 2030 with a second additional runway probably needed by 2050.

Proposals for new runways will now be taken forward at:

• Gatwick Airport
  • Gatwick Airport Ltd’s proposal for a new runway to the south of the existing runway
• Heathrow Airport (two options)
  • Heathrow Airport Ltd’s proposal for one new 3,500m runway to the northwest
  • Heathrow Hub’s proposal to extend the existing northern runway to at least 6,000m, enabling the extended runway to operate as two independent runways.

The Commission will undertake a detailed appraisal of the three options identified before a public consultation in autumn next year.

It will also undertake further study of the Isle of Grain new airport option in the Thames Estuary during the first half of 2014 and will reach a view later next year on “whether that option offers a credible proposal for consideration alongside the other short-listed options.”

The commission has not shortlisted proposals for expansion at Stansted or Birmingham but they are potential options for any second new runway by 2050.

The report also contains recommendations to the government for immediate action to improve the use of existing runway capacity including:

• a package of surface transport improvements to make airports with spare capacity more attractive to airlines and passengers, including
  • the enhancement of Gatwick Airport Station
  • further work to develop a strategy for enhancing Gatwick’s road and rail access
  • work on developing proposals to improve the rail link between London and Stansted
  • work to provide rail access into Heathrow from the south

Sir Howard Davies Chair of the Commission said: “Decisions on airport capacity are important national strategic choices and must be based upon the best evidence available.

“The Commission has undertaken a fresh, comprehensive and transparent study of the issues. This report is the product of extensive consultation, independent analysis and careful consideration by the commissioners.

“The UK enjoys excellent connectivity today. The capacity challenge is not yet critical but it will become so if no action is taken soon and our analysis clearly supports the provision of one net additional runway by 2030.

“In the meantime we encourage the government to act on our recommendations to make the best of our existing capacity.

“The Commission will now focus on the challenge of appraising the three options, further assessing the case for a new airport in the Thames Estuary, and delivering a robust final recommendation to government in summer 2015.”